COVID-19: How are we doing so far?

If you are trying to get a handle on the Coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19 and you are watching cable news then you are probably confused.  I know they confuse me.  Every “expert” seems to have different statistics and a different interpretation of what they mean.

Actually, it’s pretty easy to bypass all of these “talking heads” and go right to the source.  There are three key agencies to monitor –

• The World Health Organization (WHO
  (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd).  They have a very good COVID-19 dashboard that is tracking the disease by country. 
• The Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
  (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html).   The CDC is one of the key US agencies responsible for addressing diseases of all types.  They are doing a very good job of tracking COVID cases in the US.
• The Erie County Department of Health (ECDOH). 
  (http://www2.erie.gov/health/index.php?q=press/updated-information-covid-19-case).  The ECDOH is responsible for protecting the public health of the county.  

If you monitor these sites you will get up to date and factual information on the COVID-19 pandemic that we are all trying to work through.  If your not much for pouring through government agency websites I’ve tried to pull together some summary statistics.

Globally we have identified 194,029 positive cases of COVID-19 and 7873 COVID related deaths in 164 countries.  In the US as of March 16, 2020

In the US we have tested 31,878 cases and identified 4,226 (the US represents about 2% of all global cases) as positive.  That means that about 87% of the people whose health care providers think they may have COVID-19 really DON’T.  To date, 75 people identified as COVID-19 positive have died of COVID related symptoms.  That is a 1.7% mortality (death) rate.  So far in the US the death rate is relatively low and less than half of what other countries have experienced.  It is also important to note that this death rate is very likely artificially high as we have only this week started to test in a production (high volume) manner. 

While these numbers are important the real number to track is the number of new cases per day. 

According to the CDC, over the last week the number of new cases per day has actually DECLINED.  It is important to note that the CDC cautions that it is possible that not all cases for the last week have been reported.

This data presents a relatively positive picture.  Let’s all work to make these trends continue.