So we have all been working hard to create physical distance between ourselves and others. Governor Cuomo has determined that we should “ramp up” our efforts in NY to social distance as have governors from other states. The big question – Is it working?
What does the data show?
Since last week I have been tracking the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and EC Health Department (ECDOH) websites. Everyday they provide a wealth of raw data that is free from news media bias. To help you answer the question “…is it working?” I’ve posted my tracking table below.
| 22-Mar-20 | 21-Mar-20 | 20-Mar-20 | 19-Mar-20 | 18-Mar-20 | 17-Mar-20 | |
| United States | ||||||
| Cases Tested | 71,870 | 66,371 | 54,205 | 54,205 | 37,824 | 31,878 |
| Positive Cases | 33404 | 15219 | 15219 | 15219 | 7038 | 4,226 |
| Percent Positive | 46.5% | 22.9% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 18.6% | 13.3% |
| Deaths | 400 | 201 | 201 | 201 | 97 | 75 |
| Death Rate | 1.20% | 1.32% | 1.32% | 1.32% | 1.38% | 1.77% |
| Erie County | ||||||
| Cases Tested | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | 519 | Unknown | 311 |
| Positive Cases | 77 | 57 | 50 | 29 | 27 | 11 |
| Number of New Cases per Day | 20 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 11 |
| Deaths | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
So what are some of the key trends in this data? In the US:
- Testing. It seems like we are on our way to solving our testing problem (at least nationally). In about a week we have more than doubled (from 31,878 to 71,870) the number of tests provided. This is great news because testing allows us to be sure that we are allocating services and supplies appropriately. It also helps us to be proactive about prevention – identifying emerging epicenters of disease.
- Positive Cases. The number of positive cases has also increased. This is mostly a good thing. It demonstrates that we are testing aggressively and able to identify, quarantine and observe positive cases.
- Death Rate. This is an important statistic because not only does it give us a sense of how many people are presenting with severe symptoms, but also how well our healthcare system is doing at treating and supporting those severe cases. So far the news is positive. While every death is a sad event, the US has one of the lowest death rates and over the past week as we test more it has decreased (from 1.77% to 1.20%).
- Number of New Cases per Day. Now this is the really important statistic to track. When the Number of New Cases per Day levels off and starts to decrease that’s when we know if social distancing worked and we are “out of the woods”. I don’t track Number of New Cases per Day for the US in my tracking table because the CDC does a great job of this. The graph below is from the CDC website and shows the number of new cases in the US. In contrast to what we seem to be hearing on the news the number of new cases identified daily peaked between March 9th and March 11th. From March 12th to March 14th the number of new cases per day has began to decrease. Now I just want to provide a note of CAUTION here THIS COULD JUST BE A BLIP IN THE DATA we have to wait a bit longer to see if this downward trend will continue – this coming week will provide us with a lot of insight. If this trend continues it is good confirmation that social distancing is working for the US.
In Erie County the data is more limited. Erie county has adopted the Johns Hopkins heat map technology and while this is good it does not provide the wealth of data points available from the CDC
- Testing. From the available data we cannot tell for sure how testing is going in EC. I have some limited testing data that was abstracted from ECDOH press releases, but there is not regularly communicated testing data. We do know based on reports from County Executive Poloncarz and Heath Commissioner Burstein, that testing was not increasing as it was in the US.
- Positive Cases. In EC the number of positive cases is at 77. Over the past week the number of positive cases has ONLY doubled. The reason I say ONLY is because in the US as a whole the number of positive case has increased by 8-fold over the same time period. This could be an indication that we are still not testing aggressively in EC and have not resolved barriers to testing.
- Death Rate. This is a very good sign. So far there have been no COVID related deaths in EC. I say this with a note of CAUTION since without aggressive testing we could be missing COVID related deaths.
- Number of New Cases per Day. In EC the number of new cases per day is more volatile than in the US going from a low of 2 to a high of 20. Again, I suspect that this “roller coaster” trend in new cases per day is due to testing barriers.
The upshot is that, while it is TOO EARLY to say for sure if social distancing is helping the data would lead one to think that social distancing has a benefit. The prudent course for the next little while would be to practice social distancing aggressively and do all we can to slow the spread of COVID-19
Stay Safe. Stay Health
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